Retirement Tips

Retirement Investing - How Much Should You Save? - Part 3

October 19th, 2006 by Papabear

Here’s the last part of our 3 part series on determining how much you need to save for the retirement lifestyle you want.

Step 5 - Adjust for Social Security. You’ll notice I left a discussion of Social Security to last. Much has been written recently and much has been said recently, especially by politicians, about the future of Social Security. If you’re within a few years of retirement age, Social Security may be as close as it gets to guaranteed for you. If you’re in your 20’s or early 30’s, it’s anyone’s guess. That makes it a purely personal decision whether to take Social Security into consideration when making your retirement investment plans. Regardless, the math is simple. If you haven’t received a statement from Social Security recently showing your projected payments at retirement, you can call 800-722-1213, you can visit your local Social Security Office to submit a request, or you can go to www.ssa.gov/mystatement.

Let’s say that your payments are estimated to be $1,100 per month. Because of tax savings, that might be worth $1,300 per month of ordinary income. So if your calculations show you need $5,000 a month in income, you could reduce that to $3,700 per month or $44,400 per year. From Step 4, if your pension plan is going to cover $30,960, that means you have to save to make up the $13,440 difference. Once again that’s $13,440/8 x 100 = $168,000 as your savings goal. From the FinAid.org calculator, that would require saving $175 per month. Now this is beginning to sound very doable.

Finally, what about inflation? It does reduce the buying power of your dollars in the future. We already adjusted for inflation in using only an 8% real return after inflation rather than the 13% you often hear quoted for the gain in stocks over the last 50 years, which does include inflation. Still if your pension plan payments are fixed once you retire, the value of your payments will be less each year. So to be conservative for inflation, you can reduce the value of your pension plan payments by 30% when you do your calculations.

There are 2 other simple ways to do address inflation. First, the calculations in the steps above are based on building up money in a 401(k) plan or other tax deferred investment program. The calculations shown in the example are also based on drawing out interest and leaving the principal alone. 401(k) plan rules require that you begin drawing out money by the time you’re 72, if you haven’t begun already. Withdrawing some principal will help cover some of the cost of inflation.

Second, you can always adjust for inflation by using a lower rate of return than the 8% we used in our example for your own retirement savings plan calculations. It’s not an exact science. No one can predict the rate of inflation for the next 10 or 20 years with any degree of certainty. We can only predict trends for the future based on the past. So use prudent judgment and adjust the assumptions for how conservative you want to be.

Finally, what do you do if your calculations show you need to save say $500 a month, and you can only save $200 a month? What you do next is critical! Don’t put off getting started until you can afford to save the entire $500 a month! If you put off saving until you can afford it some time in the future, that time may never come, but retirement will eventually come. So - whatever amount you can put aside, get started today!

I hope this brief series has been helpful. Any comments or thoughts you have are certainly welcome and will be appreciated.